Chris -
Sorry to have contributed to taking your post in the wrong direction, but maybe we can get you back on track a bit. I’d love to join you for some fishing there, but my wife recently broke her leg and I have to stay close to home for the next several weeks to take care of her since she’s pretty immobile. I normally fish there several days at a time every several weeks, all winter, and have been doing so for many years (as in too many years to remember - 25, or is it 30?)
The fishing on the Salmon River can be very good at any time during the winter; or you can get skunked. But, that’s fishing. I’ve had lots of 20 fish days this time of year there; several a day is probably more realistic, with the right flies fished in the right places.
Personally, I wouldn’t be as concerned about the weather’s efffect on the fishing as I’d be on being dressed appropriately for it. You can plan on there being lots of snow and cold, but I’ve fished all day there when it’s 20 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit, of course!), and caught fish. Coming from Quebec, that weather might feel downright balmy to you!
Whitaker’s website, already mentioned, has links to both the 10 day weather forecast, and the water level. The water level was recently 750cfs, as already mentioned, which is just about perfect, IMO. Don’t get too concerned about higher (or lower) flows than this, since they’re all fishable with different tactics. Higher flows (within reason) are generally better for the fishing there than extremely low ones - for example, 500cfs up to 1000-1500cfs max. is better fishing, than (say) 250cfs – you just need to adapt. Don’t miss fishing at the crack of dawn, and the very end of the day, as those 2 times often produce the most hook-ups; however, the warmest hour (relatively) in early afternoon can also be as good as any other time.
There are lots of places to stay and a range of prices. Over the winter, Melinda’s Fly Shop in Altmar, NY, is one I can recommend, is a good source of info about the river, and is within an easy walk of the lower fly zone. (I haven’t been there yet this fall and winter, so I’m assuming she’s still open?)
Regardless of the wt and length of rod you choose to use, if you have one with oversized guides, that’s a big plus for this time of year because you’ll get ice in your guides. You didn’t ask about techniques, so I assume you’re familiar with the chuck and duck - level line - fishing that’s predominately used by “fly fishermen” there, especially during the winter, when water levels are often moderately high and steelhead holding deep?
Although many people avoid the Cemetary Hole, which is at the upper end of the lower fly zone in Altmar, it probably holds more fish than anywhere else in the river this time of year, and even if you choose to later fish elsewhere, it’s a good place for a first-timer to start with, unless you have someone to guide you, if for no other reason than to observe other people fishing there, to see how it’s done and what the fish are being caught on.
Think small for your flies. 12’s to 16’s will be the best bets. Lots of egg flies, in most colors, small stoneflies in black and even some browns and yellows, (a bit of red on that black stone never hurts either) and even San Juan worms catch steelhead there. Bead head patterns, especially with plenty of flash, like flashback PT’s, and Copper Johns, work, as do typical (but small) steelhead flies and in “steelhead” colors - chartreuse, purple, pink, etc. etc.
John