For those who are thinking about a trip to Montana this spring / summer, you might want to factor in the weather pattern we are in and the effect it could have on our fisheries.
The El Nino winter to date has resulted in a much lower than normal snowpack, and although El Nino apparently can produce a wetter spring and summer than normal, there is no guarantee that El Nino will persist into the summer months and that our streamflows and fishing conditions will be anywhere near normal or favorable.
Here is a link to an article in “The Missoulian” today that provides additional, detailed information on the current conditions and the forecast.
Thanks for the report. No matter what happens I will be making 3 or 4 trips over to Montana this year. There will be water in the Clark Fork and in the Missouri.
If you go to the below website you can find the water total for Montana. If you change the state abbreviation near the end of the URL to another western state you can find info on that state as well.
Looks like the snow that the guys in Montana are used to have made there way to the east so far this winter. We have had a total of about 30" here in WV so far. If this keeps up when everything starts to melt it may be the middle of april to late may before the levels get fishable. Who know’s? 2 weeks from now it could be 60 degrees. I do know that this global warming is mighty cold.
Let’s hope the El Nino holds through the summer; don’t want to see another 2007. Good news may be that a number of streams normally blown out during the Salmonfly or Mother’s Day caddis hatches won’t look like YooHoo.
Thanks for the report/forecast. I’m planning a Bighorn trip in May and will look for updates here. I’m assuming that the forecast is going to be the same on the central/Eastern portion of the state.
I think, but am not sure, that the weather patterns in that part of Montana and north central Wyoming are somewhat different than they are over here on the western edge of Montana. Just suggesting that you not assume that information I post on this thread will be relevant to planning your trip to the Bighorn.
Also, the Bighorn a tailwater. I think the flows there might have more to do with what the water managers decide to do than the weather ?? Follow the link for some more information on the the Bighorn. The Bigskyfishing website, by the way, is a good overview guide to fishing in Montana, although a bit general, and somewhat limited.
Currently, the Kootenay, Flathead, and Upper Clark Fork drainages are in the mid to upper 70% of average ( around 76-78% ).
The Blackfoot and Bitterroot drainages are in the mid to upper 50% of average ( around 56-58% ).
The forecast for these areas for the next couple months is milder and drier than average.
The forecast for several months beyond April, still rather tentative, is currently for drier than average.
While they had some heavy snow earlier in the year in SW Montana, the forecast for the next several months all the way down to YNP is for drier than average. Hopefully someone who is closer to the situation down there will chime in with better information.
Sorry for your loss. When I hear this about Montana, I don’t think of the fish, I think of the people, and what will probably be a worse than normal fire season. I’ll pray for you.
You can try to scare me from going to Montana:rolleyes: but it ain’t going to work, I will be there no matter what. I fished Montana thru the 8 years of drought and these past two years of good snowpack. No matter what, I will be there. In fact, I am going over in mid-February, in two weeks, to give the Clark Fork a try for two days. That will be the earliest I have ever fished it.
You are right about the low snowpack this year and the end result it will have on the rivers and lakes. Pray for a wet spring.
I hate to report that for Western Wyoming that we are much the same as Montana. The Green River Drainage is barley above 50% of normal. The Snake River near Jackson looks better at about 80%. East of the Continental Divide is very close to normal.
Here are the totals for Montana. For reference, in 2007 the Yellowstone drainage at least was around 50% all winter, and never got over about 80% from 2001-2007. Unless it’s a hundred degrees with no rain, the sky isn’t going to fall except maybe on stuff like the lower Big Hole, the Jeff, places like that which aren’t at their best midsummer in the wettest years. The first number is the snowpack percentage. Second is overall precip.
MONTANA
KOOTENAI RIVER BASIN … 8 of 8 74 85
FLATHEAD RIVER BASIN … 15 of 15 77 84
UPPER CLARK FORK RIVER BASIN … 14 of 15 75 73
BITTERROOT RIVER BASIN … 7 of 7 56 62
LOWER CLARK FORK RIVER BASIN … 8 of 8 56 68
JEFFERSON RIVER BASIN … 19 of 19 78 79
MADISON RIVER BASIN … 11 of 11 74 77
GALLATIN RIVER BASIN … 7 of 7 82 82
MISSOURI HEADWATERS … 31 of 31 77 79
HEADWATERS MISSOURI MAINSTEM … 5 of 5 89 86
SMITH, JUDITH, AND MUSSELSHELL RIVER BASINS … 9 of 9 99 99
SUN, TETON AND MARIAS RIVER BASINS … 6 of 6 64 76
MISSOURI MAINSTEM RIVER BASIN … 20 of 20 83 88
ST. MARY AND MILK RIVER BASINS … 3 of 3 78 87
UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN … 23 of 23 73 75
WIND RIVER BASIN (WYOMING) … 12 of 12 69 67
SHOSHONE RIVER BASIN (WYOMING) … 6 of 6 62 70
BIGHORN RIVER BASIN (WYOMING) … 16 of 16 68 70
TONGUE RIVER BASIN (WYOMING) … 6 of 6 74 83
POWDER RIVER BASIN (WYOMING) … 6 of 6 80 72
LOWER YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN … 32 of 32 70 72
Our biggest concern is the Western Winds (Green River) at the moment. Some areas are having a rough go this winter. I know Pinedale and Casper both had to delay opening their ski season.
Snake River 61%
Upper Yellowstone-Madison 68%
Wind River 70%
Bighorn 68%
Shoshone 63%
Powder-Tongue 77%
Belle Fourche 91%
Upper North Platte River 85%
Lower North Platte - Sweetwater - Laramie 87%
Little Snake River 85%
Upper Green River 56%
Lower Green River 61%
Upper Bear River 60%
South Platte River 80%
Snake River jumped up greatly 2 weeks ago (5%) thanks to a large snowstorm that dumped 5+ feet of snow over a 3 day period.
Let’s not forget the small streams and creeks. They can really suffer with the kind of conditions that are presently forecast.
'07 was a horrible year in SE Idaho and the Central Mountains, for example. One of the best small stream wild trout fisheries in the Central Mountains was virtually wiped out that year. No telling how long it will take to recover, and it will take many years of at least average precipitation to do so.
It is all well and good to say the big rivers won’t suffer much, but a lot of folks aren’t much interested in those fisheries and prefer the smaller creeks, which will suffer. And even the bigger rivers can be subject to closure if things continue in the direction they are headed.
Thanks for starting a thread on the conditions in Wyoming. I hope to get over there a time or two this summer if conditions are favorable so I’ll be following your thread closely.