Mats,
I?m surprised no one else has chimed in yet. Some additional thoughts:
If you are flexible about the dates of your trip, February would probably be better than January, and later in February would be better than early. Around Key West permit fishing can be very good on the flats in March and migratory tarpon (in addition to Key West?s year round resident tarpon) will be starting to move in. Late February may help to catch early arrivals. The magic number for flats fishing for bonefish seems to be water temp above 68 degrees Fahrenheit, with water temp above 72 being best. Permit seem to be more tolerant of cooler water, and tarpon on the flats seem to prefer warmer water. The longer days in Feb will help warm up water, and a good guide?s knowledge of local flats will help too, since some areas will warm up more quickly than others (depending on winds, prevailing currents, water depth, moon phase, and bottom color). But if you can?t be flexible, come anyway. There?s plenty of other stuff to catch.
Further North (near Miami) oceanside flats off Islamorada may have bones in Jan or Feb, even if the backside flats (on the gulf side) of the keys don?t, and there may be permit in Biscayne Bay, if you plan on fishing with Rob or another guide for more than 1 day down there in the upper keys, but I would definitely spend one day in the everglades because the scenery and fishing is just so spectacular. Snook fishing can be very good in February in the everglades, along with the possibility of huge tarpon, lots of baby tarpon, redfish, snappers, and tons of other stuff.
I haven?t fished with him, but Captain Dexter Simmons in Key West has an excellent reputation as a guide. His website will give you a good idea of the options in Key West at that time of year www.keywestflyfishing.com
To give you an idea, of what you?re likely to run into, I took my two brothers and father down to the keys in Feb to fish with Rob and another guide. We planned to fish for 3 days, and spent one day in the everglades, and two days on the flats. My brothers and father don?t normally fish at all, but this was a male bonding trip. We had two and 1/2 great days, but the third was bad weather and we were on the water for a ? day. We caught lemon sharks, a bull shark, sea trout, lady fish, Spanish Mackeral, hooked and lost a 60lb tarpon, some snook, snappers, black drum and redfish on light spinning tackle and plugs (we used a ladyfish we caught as bait for shark on the flats). The highlight was a 100lb tarpon that came out of nowhere and swirled at my father?s ladyfish right at the boat as he was reaching to land it. We all had a blast. We didn?t spend any time chasing permit, bones or tarpon, since the emphasis was on action and ?fellowship? rather than hardcore fishing.
If your girlfriend doesn?t fish, have a guide bring along a light spinning rod and some plugs for her to throw in the everglades, or on the flats for barracuda, jacks and other fish and a heavier spinning rod for sharks for her to use on the flats while your throwing flies. She?ll have a blast even if she?s never fished before, and the sharks should be very easy to hook up. On the flats, you can actually watch them come in from along way off, and it?s very fun to see, you?ll probably have more fun watching her than if you hooked it yourself. Just let your guide know in advance so he?ll bring the gear for her.
If I were you, and could swing the $?s, I would try to book two full days of guides, one with Rob in the Everglades with you fly fishing and your girlfriend using spinning tackle and plugs, spending the night before in a cheap motel like the Best Western in Homestead assuming you?d meet Rob in Flamingo in the morning for the Everglades. That night I?d drive to a place like Islamorada for another night and stop in at Sandy Moret?s place http://www.floridakeysoutfitters.com at mile marker 81.2 and ask Sandy or Sue about fishing the flats at Bahia Honda State Park (you?ll need a Florida saltwater license which you can get from them). There are flats you can wade there yourself, some kind of flats boots (or old sneakers) are recommended. I?m sure they could give you some good advice on places to try there that have been fishing well.
The next day, I?d head to Key West, (about 80 miles from Islamorada) stopping at Robbie?s Marina at mile marker 77.5 to feed the tarpon http://www.robbies.com/tarpon.htm for good luck and then drive to Bahia Honda State Park, about 16 miles south of Marathon Key for some ?do it yourself? wade fishing looking for bonefish, before continuing on to Key West. Over night in Key West (make reservations since this can be peak season for tourists), next day fish with Dexter on the flats, and spend some time getting your girlfriend hooked up to a shark. (It shouldn?t take long on bait and a heavy rod.) Let Dexter know in advance if you?re planning to do this, so he can throw a heavy spinning rod and maybe a light spinning rod and some plugs in the boat for her. Maybe rent a small boat the following day for some ?do it your self? fishing (the rental place in the above post should give you a map and some likely spots to try.) The boat won?t be a flats skiff, but you probably couldn?t talk your girl friend into poling all day anyway, unless Swedish girlfriends are different than American ones. (If so, please let me know if she has a sister…) Any way, fishing channels, and holes you can easily see should yield snappers, barracuda, jacks and other fish, and you may luck out casting to a cruising shark, tarpon, or permit. Or take a snorkeling cruise from Key West. Don?t forget to do this: http://www.sunsetcelebration.org/ to ensure good kharma.
Again, the fishing will be weather dependent, wind and cold fronts can put a damper on fishing, with the Everglades being less susceptible than Key West, but with a little luck, you should have a great time, and the longer you?re down there the better your chances of decent weather. Spreading out the time between guides might be a good idea to increase your chances of having decent weather at least one day in the Keys or Everglades, but hopefully both. You could spend another night in Islamorada and rent a small boat from Robbies for example, before the drive to Key West. By the way, it is customary for guides to refund all money if truly nasty weather prevents them from going out.
With guides like Rob and Dexter, it is wise to book as far in advance as possible. If they are booked, and don?t have suggestions for other guides, you can arrange a guide through Sandy or Sue at Florida Keys Outfitters (for the Everglades) and Jeffery Cardenas at Saltwater Angler in Key West. Although a ? day is less expensive, usually the full day is a much better deal, since you?ll get more fishing time, considering the time spent running to spots to begin fishing, especially in the everglades and it takes time to adjust to seeing fish and flats fishing techniques if you haven?t done a lot of it? and also gives the flats time to warm up in the afternoon sun for fishing Key West… It?s also easier to spot fish if the sun isn?t directly overhead. If things come together, (and you?ve kept the universe in balance by feeding the tarpon and going to the sunset celebration), you?ll have great memories and stories to share. Good luck Mats, let us know if this is the kind of info you are looking for.
Best regards,
peregrines