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"The winds of time, they are a changing." Don't
know about that, in fact, I am not sure they are.
Things never remain the same, nothing does. So,
the winds are not changing, they are blowing just
like always. I was thinking about this today after
a phone call from a major manufacturer. By now I
am sure most of you know there must be an 'inside
channel,' a network of these guys who all know each
other and are in nearly constant contact. Well,
it may not be that tight but there is
communication among us all.
Every year at this time, January through
March there is a money crunch. Not just in
the fly fishing game but all over our country.
Here is how it sets up for our trades though,
I may not hit it all but this gets the majority
of it.
Starting in the fall fly shop owners and dealers
place pre-season orders with the manufacturers.
The manufacturers then tool up and produce the
goods for delivery in the spring or there abouts.
So far this last spring pre-season orders have
been light. During the winter retailers put things
on sale for the holidays, then when it was over
dumped goods on eBay to clear things out. Mostly
they did it to bring in cash. Sales are slow for
many shops.
Why? You guessed it, 'non' brick and mortar fly
shops. Internet fly shops, the ones without a 'hard'
address. Guys buying distressed goods and selling
them just a bit over their cost. Remember there are
just so many buyers/customers. When a fly shop dumps
goods, it may be one of his regular customers who
buys it. He is helping his own downfall. It is
happening still. The prospects are not bright
either. I might suggest that in one year from now
we will have lost another 20% of the fly shops
in the country. Some of those shops would not
have survived anyway, but they are speeding up
their own downfall - and blaming on anything -
or everything else except their own bad business
management.
January starts the show season which runs for
about three months all across the country. One
of the reasons for this is to generate dollars
and write more orders. But it is costly to travel
around and pay for show space and at a time when
cash is tight, but they do it anyway. One of the
reasons you can sometimes get a great price on
things.
These are not just my thoughts, but are in
agreement with several others. I will note
too that, some companies are doing very well
and so are some fly shops. Kind of a natural
thing. Like beans in a jar, shake them up, the
big ones always come to the top. This is neither
a good thing nor bad, it is simply what it will
be. The sport will continue, new goodies will
be developed, competition will create product.
Supply and demand will regulate prices and goods.
I see an increase in fly-tackle shows, both
dealers only and consumer types. These bring
in folks and are good over all. Some shows are
dwindling, a main one in California is on the
ropes, but another is replacing it in another
part of the state. We just had one here, Friday
Saturday and Sunday. Friday was very light,
Saturday was fine and Sunday was poor. Most of
those who had booths did not make expenses, but
some did well. We were there on Saturday, had
a grand time. Lots of people, lots of interest
in the equipment and some good sales. Sometimes
what happens at these show is the manufacturer
will sell directly to the customer his items at
wholesale. This of course makes it tough for the
local dealer the next week to get the retail
price. Or for some time to come.
This disturbs me. I have asked around and here
is what I am hearing. The guys are not seeing
the kids at the shows. I don't have any answers
yet, this word just reached me, but I too have
noticed it. This is for the fly-fishing shows
remember. I have no information on the 'cross-over'
shows, spinning, casting and fly. Maybe they are
getting some kids, I hope so. Is it because so
many fly fishers tend to be about 45 years old
on the average? That is down from two years ago
when it was 47. Are the grand kids too small,
your kids too old? Perhaps. Needless to say,
where are the kids, the seeds we need to
continue.
As the pendulum swings back will we return to
more of a 'cottage industry?' Maybe. But, those
were good times too. Lots of personal involvement
between the buyer and seller. Will the big box
stores hurt or help? Who knows. Will eBay and the
cyber-shops undermine the profit from our toys?
Some of it for sure. Even the Internet is bringing
back bartering and swapping, not an easy thing to
do during the past years. Again, good or bad, who
knows. One thing for sure though, things will not
remain the same. They are a changing. ~ JC
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