That is a very interesting question. I have extreme confidence in about five patterns that I fish on a regular basis. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure which came first, the confidence in these patterns or the fact that they consistently produce fish for me. There have been a good number of occasions where I've been fishing with one of these patterns and catching lots of fish and then give one to a fishing buddy or even a total stranger and watch them flail away with little or no success. I've even cut the fly off of my line to give to another person and told them where to cast and how to fish the pattern and they don't seem to have the same success. Who knows, perhaps it's just plain old fishing Karma. Jim Smith