Just an idea for you when things get complex and you can't find a solution at hand. Myself, I'll jump right in the feeding lane and put my nose right down to the water and look for a solution to what those risers were eating. If I need further evidence the bug seine comes out.
It's pretty hard to tell what's going on from 10 or 40 ft. sometime. I might put a few fish down for awhile in that spot but I can move knowing what fly to use as a hatch matcher and come back later after giving the fish a rest if there is a worthwhile fish there.
Anyhoo, I look for physical evidence rather than a rise form guess-tamation when the fish are fussy about taking my fly.
"As far down the river as he could see, the trout were rising, making circles on the surface of the water, as though it were starting to rain."- E.H., The Big Two Hearted River