A comment on another post really got me thinking. Is there luck in fly fishing? I would answer no, and in that answer realized why I prefer fly fishing to bait fishing (and no ? that is not the debate I am trying to have). I do think, though, in comparing the two; luck differentiates them a great deal. Furthermore the idea of marginalizing the luck involved in catching fish; is one of the major reasons why I fly fish.

If we think about luck from a logical standpoint, we could define luck as one possible, but unlikely, outcome of a situation given an infinite number of variables. For example the other month I was riding the DC Metro (a subway). I ended up sitting right across from a guy who lived on my floor freshman year of college. I hadn?t seen him since graduation. Was that luck? Absolutely. Given that there are at least approximately 10 cars on a metro train, with roughly 70 seats a piece, and a different train coming every six minutes or so? The statistical probability that my friend and I would ride the same train at the same time and be near each other is pretty damn small. What, you ask, does that have to do with fly fishing?

Many of us, when we fish, actively evaluate and weigh out these variables from experience, observation, education, etc. A good fly-fisherman, I would argue, is one who is effective at ?putting together the pieces?. By doing so, he reduces the amount of ?luck? needed to catch a fish. Of course the amount of ?luck? involved in catching a fish would differ from situation to situation. A fisherman fishing his local stream during a huge hatch using a perfect imitation needs much less ?luck? that someone prospecting unfamiliar waters with a streamer. The latter example still requires less luck than most traditional fishing (again, I?m not bashing bait fishing or really even attempting to include it in this conversation).

Simply put, there is something advantageous about imitating a set of naturalistic circumstances which seems to greatly reduce the amount of luck needed to catch a fish. I think that the best fisherman (and I?m not saying that I am one of them?not even close) needs no luck what-so-ever. For these men and women its simply that they catch fish when possible, and don?t when impossible (i.e. the darn things just aren?t feeding). That being said?does luck ever occasionally come into play for the fly fisherman? Sure. I think we have all probably caught one or two fish against all odds. The random, oversized dry fly, clumsily placed in an area that would never possibly hold big fish but somehow gets a huge one to rise. Yeah, that?s most likely luck ? but ? those types of things happen less than often.

Anyway, after all that, what I was wondering is what other people think about luck and fly fishing. Is the guy that catches more fish just more lucky? Anyone feel like the only reason they catch fish is out of luck? Any good stories about a huge one caught purely out of luck?